How much will Trump press Germany on military spending?

It is Donald Trump's unpredictability that worries German politicians the most. Will he once again criticize Germany harshly, like he did during his first term in office? Will he rant against NATO, particularly his European partners, or even threaten to leave the alliance?

It is difficult to know — and this is causing a certain degree of unease in Berlin. When German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock offered Trump "partnership and friendship" after he won the election, it also conveyed a desire for reliability in difficult times.

For Germany, NATO is indispensable

Few on either side of the Atlantic doubt that the German-American relationship rests on a solid foundation. US President Joe Biden emphasized that the US would defend "every inch of NATO territory" in the event of an attack.

This was a comforting assurance for European NATO members. In the event of a conflict, Germany, with just over 180,000 troops who are still inadequately equipped, would be totally dependent on the protection of the military alliance.

However, things will be different under the Republican Donald Trump than they were under the committed transatlanticist Biden. It's not just that Trump sees Europe playing a subordinate role, well behind China and the Indo-Pacific region. But Trump also sees Europe's defense as primarily a European responsibility — and not an American one. 

Currently, the US contributes the lion's share to NATO, supplying the most troops and maintaining core capabilities in intelligence and logistics. Trump, who has often described NATO membership as too costly for the US, could greatly reduce this commitment.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was quick to respond after Trump's election victory: "We Europeans have to do more for our own security. We have to come to a fair burden sharing," — and called on his counterparts from France, Poland, the UK, and Italy to discuss Europe's defense capabilities.

Germany could have a leading role to play, but it is currently in the midst of a political crisis that will lead to early elections on February 23.

Security only in exchange for money?

During his first term in office (2017-2021), Trump regularly mocked Germany for what he regarded as insufficient defense spending. Germany owes NATO "huge sums of money," Trump alleged. Then-Chancellor Angela Merkel from the center-right Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) reacted with irritation.

One can expect Trump to raise the issue of defense spending once again. He even mentioned the issue during the election campaign. Those who do not meet NATO's "two percent target," in other words, do not spend at least 2% of their gross domestic product on defense, will not be protected by the US, the Republican ranted to the applause of his supporters.

Security expert Ulrike Franke from the European Council on Foreign Relations thinks such statements are dangerous: "That alone undermines NATO to an insane degree, because trust in NATO is based on the belief that the other allies will come to one's aid," she told DW.

Former NATO chief strategist Stefanie Babst told public broadcaster ZDF that she is also concerned about Donald Trump's second term in office: "Trump doesn't see NATO as an alliance of shared values, but as a service organization." Whoever pays gets protection — this attitude is "truly poisonous for NATO." Ultimately, it is Russian President Vladimir Putin who benefits from discord within NATO, Babst believes.

So could Germany, as a supposed "debtor," be excluded from the new US administration's promise of protection — even though it is home to US nuclear weapons that serve as a nuclear deterrent?

This year, for the first time in decades, the German government spent 2% of its gross domestic product on defense — thus fulfilling the voluntary commitment of NATO members. However, this was only possible thanks to a one-off special fund (requiring new debt) of €100 billion ($105 billion) for the Bundeswehr, which the government made available after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

By 2026 or 2027, however, it will be used up. It will be the task of the new federal government to increase the defense budget permanently. Otherwise, Germany could again fall below the 2% threshold and find itself criticized by its allies. During his last term in office, Trump even threatened to withdraw some of the US troops stationed in Germany — as a "sanction" for what he saw as insufficient defense spending.

The end of US support for Ukraine looms

Another issue that causes headaches for Europeans is military aid for Ukraine. Here, too, the US has been Ukraine's largest donor, followed by Germany. Trump's statements on the subject give reason to fear that he will not approve any further US aid.

Security expert Ulrike Franke doubts that the Europeans will be able to compensate for this shortfall. The problem is not so much a lack of money as a lack of weapons. "In my opinion, the really big problem is the military equipment. We have emptied our arsenals in the last two and a half years. What we haven't done enough of is to build up our industrial production."

Although Germany has significantly increased its arms production since the start of  Russia's war in Ukraine, it was starting from a low level, for example in the production of ammunition.

Trump's grandiose announcement that he would end the war in Ukraine "in 24 hours" also caused irritation in Germany. It could be that Trump "makes whatever kind of deal with Putin — and the Europeans are neither sufficiently united nor really in a position to reject it," Franke told DW. For her, this is "a horror scenario."

"If Trump tries to reach an agreement with Putin, Ukraine will most likely not sit at the negotiating table — and neither will Europe," wrote Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, director of the German Council on Foreign Relations on the DGAP website. "No one will want to accept being shut out. Therefore, the major European countries (Poland, Great Britain, France, Italy and Germany) should form a contact group with Ukraine to explore the conditions for a ceasefire and an eventual peace before Trump even assumes office."  

This article was originally written in German.

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