Namibian election: SWAPO faces new challenges in tight race

Across southern Africa, support for long-standing ruling parties has dwindled over the past year.

South Africa's once-strong African National Congress (ANC) had to form a coalition government with the Democratic Alliance (DA) to govern for the first time since independence. Neighboring Mozambique is facing violent unrest after Frelimo's disputed election win and opposition parties have recently won in Botswana and Mauritius.

In Namibia, where polling opened in presidential and parliamentary elections on Wednesday, the South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO), which has been in power since 1990, remains strong in the country's populous northern regions. 

Could SWAPO recover from its 2019 decline?

SWAPO has already seen a decline, however. In Namibia's 2019 parliamentary elections, it lost its two-thirds majority in the National Assembly for the first time since independence in 1990. The late President Hage Geingob, who passed away earlier this year, recorded the weakest election result in the party's history with around 56%.

In the 2020 local elections, SWAPO also lost control of urban centers, including the capital, Windhoek, and the key port city of Walvis Bay.

While SWAPO seems to follow the regional trend of liberation movements losing ground, Namibian political analyst Rakkel Andreas argued that "the change taking place in southern Africa cannot be generalized as an anti-liberation movement."

The political dynamics in each country are too distinct for such a broad categorization, she noted.

SWAPO's strength lies in opposition's weakness

Political scientist Rui Tyitende from the University of Namibia told DW she believes Namibia's weak and fragmented opposition is rather the key to SWAPO's continued political success.

A total of 21 parties are competing in Wednesday' parliamentary elections, along with 15 presidential candidates.

The political space is suffering from overcrowding, Tyitende says.

"The reason for the fragmentation is not related to political or ideological issues, but to egos, to personality clashes," she said, pointing out that there is no unified opposition coalition against SWAPO.

Added to this is Namibia's proportional electoral system, which allows even the smallest parties to win seats in parliament.

According to German-Namibian political scientist Henning Melber, the system attracts individuals "who only stand for political office because they hope to gain access to the honey pots."

Material privileges have always been a motivating factor in Namibian politics, Melber added.

The opposition has also struggled to maintain voter confidence since their successes in the 2020 local and regional elections. In Windhoek, an opposition coalition failed, and SWAPO has regained power in a new coalition.

Melber added that "with this opposition, SWAPO has a better chance of emerging relatively unscathed."

First female president?

Political veteran Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, aged 72, is aiming to become Namibia's first female president. She is currently serving as the country's vice president under interim head of state Nangolo Mbumba, who decided not to run for office after taking over in February following Geingob's death.

Nandi-Ndaitwah has pledged to create jobs and tackle the 20% unemployment rate among young people and graduates, with a promise to invest 85 billion Namibian dollars ($4.7 billion or €4.4 billion) over the next five years to generate over 500,000 jobs — a goal critics find unrealistic.

Women's issues, such as reproductive rights, equal pay and healthcare, are also expected to be significant for voters.

If elected, Nandi-Ndaitwah would follow in the footsteps of trailblazing African female leaders like Liberia's Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Malawi's Joyce Banda and Catherine Samba-Panza of the Central African Republic.

Nandi-Ndaitwah has been a prominent figure in Namibian politics since independence, holding numerous ministerial positions. Analyst Rui Tyitende noted that she is perceived as "a president with no skeletons in the closet."

Who can challenge SWAPO for the presidency?

The election remains undecided largely because of the IPC (Independent Patriots for Change). Its leader, Panduleni Itula, a former dentist and ex-SWAPO member, ran as an independent candidate in 2019, capturing 30% of the vote from his former party colleague Hage Geingob. He is now seen as the most promising opposition candidate.

However, Itula and his new party will face a united SWAPO and a strong government candidate in Nandi-Ndaitwah.

Itula might also face a public backlash related to his marriage to a British woman. Criticism surrounding the possibility of a foreign — and white first lady — shows the deep historical resentment that still exists from the colonial era, political scientist Melber says.

Rakkel Andreas has a similar viewpoint. "The symbolism is simply problematic, I think it will be very difficult for many Namibians to accept," she said.

Namibia has been a colony under white minority rule since 1885, first with Germany as the colonial power and then as a mandate territory of South Africa.

Parliamentary elections: a glimmer of hope for the opposition

The competition for parliamentary seats is expected to be intense. Andreas, Melber and Tyitende predict the IPC will emerge as Namibia's official opposition, becoming the second-strongest party.

Additionally, the new left-wing party Affirmative Repositioning (AR), led by former SWAPO member Job Amupanda, is also pushing its way into parliament. This could force the ruling party into a coalition.

"Space will have to be created for the IPC and AR and I believe that this will be at the expense of SWAPO," said Andreas.

A final mood test before the elections seems to confirm this trend. Approximately 16,000 Namibians abroad, uniformed civil servants, and seafarers have already cast their votes.

Preliminary figures indicate a clear trend: a SWAPO victory ahead of the IPC and AR.

This article was originally published in German on 26.11.2024. It was updated on 27.11.2024 to reflect poll stations opening.

AP news agency contributed reporting.