Why Romania's election marathon is important for EU, Ukraine

Romania has featured less and less in EU politics in recent years. At first glance, this is surprising considering that it is the sixth-largest country in the European Union in terms of population size and of huge strategic significance given its location on the southeastern flank of both the bloc and NATO.

This is particularly relevant when one considers that, of all EU member states, Romania has by far the longest shared border with Ukraine. It is also the most important base for US and NATO forces in southeastern Europe.

Moreover, it faces military threats like no other country in the EU: Russia's Shahed drones regularly explode either over or on Romanian territory. In 2023, the government in Bucharest went so far as to construct air raid shelters for residents in the Danube Delta.

Romania's silence on international matters

However, unlike Poland or the Baltic states, Romania contributes very little to debates about how to handle Russia and support Ukraine.

Romania's general silence on this and other important political matters is largely down to President Klaus Iohannis, who has been in office for 10 years.

Silence and a low profile on both the domestic and international political stage have become his trademark — even though the Romanian constitution sees the president as the country's most important voice at home and an important foreign policy player abroad.

From election promises to political passiveness

This is the situation in Romania as the country heads into two weeks of elections.

The first round of the presidential election will take place on Sunday. A week later (December 1), Romanians will elect a new parliament, and a week after that (December 8), there will be a runoff in the presidential election if — as expected — none of the candidates gets an absolute majority in the first round.

Having served two terms, President Iohannis is no longer able to run. His support in society and political circles has hit rock bottom anyway.

Ten years ago, he ran for president promising root-and-branch reform and to liberate the country from evils such as corruption.

But Iohannis, who is a member of Romania's German minority and was previously mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, never really found his feet in the presidential palace or Bucharest's political jungle, and soon slipped into a passive role.

It is against this backdrop that nationalist and anti-reform forces have gained strength.

Social Democratic candidate ahead in the polls

The favorite going into Sunday's first round of the presidential election was Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party (PSD).

Back in 1990, after the overthrow of the communist Ceausescu regime the previous year, the PSD — which then operated under a different name — was a melting pot for former regime officials.

It has dominated Romania's political landscape for 35 years, making it the only party that survived regime change in the former communist bloc.

The shadow of corruption

In contrast to what its name suggests, the PSD does not have a social democratic orientation, but generally adopts right-wing populist, nationalist positions mixed with left-wing social rhetoric.

For many urban Romanians, the PSD is the epitome of corruption in the post-communist state. In rural regions in the east and south, however, it remains the dominant political force.

Ciolacu, who is currently at about 24% in the opinion polls, is a PSD veteran, having worked his way up to the top of the party and government from his early beginnings in provincial politics in the early 1990s.

He represents the conservative nationalist wing of the party and has on numerous occasions been linked to cases of alleged corruption, including a recent scandal surrounding a luxury trip.

Nevertheless, many Romanians see Ciolacu as a dependable PSD politician who guarantees stability and calm and never forgets the "ordinary people."

Should Ciolacu be elected president, it is unlikely that Romania will take an anti-European turn — as has been the case under Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Hungary. It is instead likely that Romania will remain a loyal member of the EU and NATO abroad, but that necessary justice and anti-corruption reforms will be stopped at home.

Ultranationalist in second place in the polls

Things will look very different indeed if George Simion is elected president.

Simion, who was polling at about 15% before the election, is head of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR). He is an anti-European ultranationalist, although he has hardly anything in common with the last two generations of Romanian nationalists, who were firmly rooted in the past.

The radical right leader has copied a lot from politicians like Donald Trump and Viktor Orban and garnered a lot of attention as a result of his social media activities. He is banned from entering Moldova and Ukraine because he claims parts of their territory should belong to Romania.

Simion is also suspected of having links to the Russian secret service, although no proof of this has ever been provided.

Progressive also in the running

Neck and neck with Simion at 15% and vying for second place in the first round of the presidential election was Elena Lasconi, chairwoman of the progressive liberal Save Romania Union (USR).

A former star journalist and presenter on a private TV channel, Lasconi entered politics a few years ago and was elected mayor of the southern Romanian town of Campulung.

Her party, the USR, was established about a decade ago as an anti-corruption civic movement and stood for progressive, liberal policies.

For several years now, however, the USR has become bogged down in everyday party politics and repeated fights about the direction the party should take. The USR left a government coalition formed in 2020 with the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) after only 10 months following a dispute about judicial reform.

Balancing act and family dispute

Elena Lasconi's political style and election campaign reflected the problems of the USR. She was trying to manage a balancing act between progressive politics and being in touch with ordinary people.

A few years ago, she voted against gay marriage in a referendum initiated by the Orthodox churches, provoking a very public family dispute — her daughter identifies as "part of the LGBTQ community".

Lasconi now speaks out in favor of civil partnerships for members of the LGBTQ community but remains opposed to gay marriage. When speaking in public, she wears a large cross around her neck and clothes that are inspired by traditional Romanian costumes.

Who would win a runoff?

Should it come to a runoff on December 8, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu would in all likelihood prefer to stand against George Simion.

As was the case in 2000, when former Communist Ion Iliescu faced off against ultranationalist Corneliu Vadim Tudor, it is likely that many Romanians would opt for what they see as the "lesser evil," and that is Ciolacu.

If, on the other hand, Lasconi makes it into the second round, two contrasting Romanias would be pitted against each other: city against country, tradition against modernism, a rigid apparatus against the forces of reform.

The forecasts for the outcome of the parliamentary election on December 1 tell a remarkably similar tale: Recent polls suggest that the PSD will get 25% to 35% of the vote and both the nationalist AUR and the national liberal USR 15% to 21%.

This article was originally published in German.